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Prediction for CME (2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-02T03:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27547/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the large dimming region centered around N25E25 which begins to dim around 2023-11-02T03:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Faint field line movement is visible above the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-11-02T04:30Z. ICME arrival signature is characterized by a sharp jump in magnetic field from already elevated 14 nT (after arrival a day before) to 25 nT, then gradually increasing to 34 nT, accompanied by rapid rotations of all three magnetic field components and by a jump in solar wind speed from 320 km/s to 430 km/s. There is a corresponding increase in ion density and temperature. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27602/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T08:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 20231102T0935
Radial velocity (km/s): 621
Longitude (deg): -17
Latitude (deg): 38
Half-angular width (deg): 47

Notes:

Lead Time: 56.70 hour(s)
Difference: 7.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-11-02T23:28Z

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